As I said the September COE result is important as it reflects the trend for the future COE price. This time Cat A increases $99 to $13,102. Cat B down $302 to $14,399. It can be seen that both did not pass the $15k mark. So I feel $15k is the resistance line.
As the previous increase is due to the rumour that COE quota will decrease. However, the truth is not. LTA just announced that more COE, 8,520 to be precised, will be released for this quota year. Market reacts to this news by slashing price. Nissan takes the lead by reducing $1k to $4k off the car price.
Current COE price is considered "quite high" and dealers themselves know that buyers are not coming in. So the increase in quota is indeed a good news as most of them see it as an indicator to keep the COE price down. So with COE price down, car price down, buyers naturally comes in. So I predict the next round COE should be down by around $1k.
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