COE analysis May 2nd round

In my last prediction, I said COE might up a bit. Indeed, this round COE is really up "a bit". Cat A this round posted $10,100 which up $97. Cat B is $11,801, rising $282. Last week, newspaper reported "the crowd" is back after COE fell sharply. So I thought this round COE might rebound at least a $500 but no. A quick check with Toyota and Nissan for their latest car price shows that there are no changes. So this might shows that they have enough order to keep them going. But looking at the amount it rises, it could only shows how much "the crowd" is.

Any way, I always feel that how can the demand for new cars keep growing? Singaporeans is not that rich one. Most are just average Joe earning $4k-5k (or less) on the average. With this amount of money, it is unlikely for them to change cars every three years like it used to be due to the new tax structure and higher interest rate. So unless there is a cut in tax stucture or a slash in pricing or interest rate, I feel the demand is unlikely to rise in near future. So I predict the next round COE will stay about the same as this round or fall some more as it is already seen by this round that a cut in $2000 in car price is still "not good enough" to bring in enough crowd.